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When handicapping the NFL its
best to break the season down into different parts, the reasoning
is due to the fact that there are different principles that must
be applied to the handicap depending on what part of the season we
are talking about.
For example, the NFL pre-season
is quite meaningless to some teams because that is the way their
head coach views these games, on the other hand some head coaches
like to instill a winning atmosphere from the outset regardless
whether its a pre-season game or not, this means that you as a
handicapper must take this into consideration along with what each
head coach wants to accomplish during the pre-season games with
regard to what his needs are, take a gander at last seasons
final offensive and defensive rankings and you can easily tell
what the coach will want to improve on.
The first four games of the
regular season must be handicapped totally different as well, keep
in mind that usually more than a few teams changed entire
coaching staffs during the off season, this means that the players
on those teams have had to learn a new system and may not be ready
for prime time.
Weeks five through twelve are
the meat of the schedule in which teams will start to show their
true identities with regard to whether they want to be a passing
team or a running team, whether they want to jell as a unit and
create team chemistry or not, this is the time of the year that
you want to start keeping really close tabs on each teams "Rush
for" yards and "Rush against" yards, the
reasoning is that these are the teams that are controlling the
line of scrimmage and that wins ballgames for you.
Weeks thirteen through seventeen
can be dangerous for a novice handicapper because there are many
pitfalls that can break their piggy banks if they are not careful,
novice handicappers have a tendency of either over-emphasizing or
under-emphasizing team motivations during this stretch of the
season and also fail to properly access each teams injury
situation with regard to some teams sitting starters and playing
backups and how this will affect the performance of that offensive
or defensive unit, after this stretch of games there is a whole
different world called the post season waiting for you.....good
luck!!
Our goal here at www.footballforecastor.com
is to hit the 60% win mark year in and year out with our NFL and
college football selections, in the big picture few handicappers
are able to achieve this lofty goal on a consistent basis. I shake
my head in wonderment on how they get away with such outrageous
claims when I see the Saturday morning scam-you-cappers on TV or
in the advertisements listed in the USA Today newspaper touting
win percentages of 75% or 80% over the course of a season.
The simple truth is that only
the very best handicappers consistently produce seasonal results
that fall within the 55% to 60% range much like we do here at
footballforecastor.com year in and year out, my advise to all
clients is to use extreme discipline in the amount of games you
wager on each week, you must also adhere to good money management
techniques in order to get through the peaks and valleys of a long
season.
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