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Welcome to the Football Forecastor, home to Jim "Dirtydog"
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Football
Forecastor
Hello my
friends..
Those that
read my previous article on NFL coaching changes for 2011 also got
to bone up on my thoughts on two teams to watch out for that might
very well surprise during the upcoming season when it comes to
projected regular season wins, the Cleveland Browns and the Denver
Broncos. Below you will find my overall final list of teams that I
expect to either surpass or fall short of the posted Vegas regular
season win totals.
CLEVELAND:
I won't get too detailed with the Brownies in this article as I have
already wrote an in-depth piece on them in my previous article,
however, with that being said I will indeed lay out a few reasons WHY
I fully expect the Brownies to surpass 6.5 wins. First of all, a
glance at the final SOS (strength of schedule) from last season
reveals that Cleveland actually faced the NFLs third toughest slate
of games as evidenced by the fact that the Browns sixteen opponents
from last year combined to finish with a winning percentage of .564.
Against last years
opponents Cleveland managed to post a record of 5-11 straight up and
5-10-1 ATS, a closer look-see reveals that five of the Brownies
eleven straight up losses were by six or less points and lets not
forget that Cleveland went into New Orleans and whipped the Saints
30-17, defeated the Patriots 34-14, and gave the Jets all they
wanted before losing 20-26.
This year the Brownies are
tied with three other teams (Oakland, Giants, Atlanta) for the 19th
toughest schedule, in other words, Cleveland is going from playing
the 3rd toughest schedule last year to having the 19th toughest
schedule this year, is asking Cleveland to win two additional games
this year versus last year all that much? I don't think so and
especially when considering that Cleveland will get to face the weak
NFC West this season in road games at San Francisco and Arizona and
will also have fairly easy home dates against the likes of Tenny,
Miami, Seattle, St Louis, and Jacksonville.....OVER 6.5
regular season wins.
DENVER:
The Broncos are the other team that I have already profiled in my
previous article, like Cleveland, I fully expect Denver to surpass
the projected regular season win total of 6 that Vegas has set for
them. However, unlike the Brownies who have an easier schedule this
year versus last year, these Broncos actually have a tougher slate
of games this year versus last year.
Denver finished last year
with an overall mark of 4-12 straight up and were 5-10-1 ATS, the
Broncos faced the NFLs 23rd toughest schedule last year (.488) as
computed by league final win/loss results. This year the Broncos are
tied with five other teams (Indy, Jags, KC, SD, and Det) for the
right to have the leagues 3rd toughest slate of games. So if the
Broncos only won four games last year with the 23rd rated schedule,
what is it that makes me think they will equal or surpass 6 wins
this year with a tougher schedule?
Without getting too
in-depth here (read my other article) with regard to the changes
that have taken place in Denver, let it suffice to say that having a
new sheriff in town (John Fox) will make all the difference as
Denver lost four games last year by seven or less points due to
fielding a defense that gave up a monster 471 points on the season,
which needless to say was the most points allowed by any team. Look
for defensive-minded skipper John Fox to have the cure for what
ailed last seasons 32nd ranked defense.
In the big picture Vegas
isn't stupid, the odds maker knows Denver faces a tougher slate of
games this year versus last year, he knows that Denver only won four
games last year but yet he sets Denvers regular season win total
this year at 5.5 only to have the sharps almost immediately take the
number up to 6. New Skipper John Fox likes to play a more
conservative game by running the ball more and playing strong
defense, this approach by itself will surely help the Broncos
turnover margin from last season (- 9) and could mean the difference
in a couple of close games.....OVER 6
regular season wins.
MINNESOTA:
The Vikings are one of eight teams this season to have a new skipper
directing traffic, however, new HC Leslie Frazier with Minny, along
with new HC Jason Garrett for Dallas, are the only two new guys that
were actually interim HC hold-overs from last season when Minnesota
and Dallas both fired their headmen prior to the conclusion of the
regular season. This means that both Frazier and Garrett will have a
leg up on the other new skippers and especially when it comes to
player relations and scheme implementation.
What I pointed out above
really doesn't have diddly to do with how each team will actually
perform within their own division because no other team within the
Vikings or Cowboys division had a head coaching change. The time and
place to take advantage of head coaching changes should be based on
what spread Vegas places on events that involve teams with new
skippers. Never lose sight of the fact that its all about public
PERCEPTION.
Joe Public sees a Viking
team that finished last year with an overall mark of 6-10 straight
up and 5-10-1 ATS, ole Joe views the Vikings as a team influx with
regard to last years very distracting Favre saga and the eventual
goodbye to HC Brad Childress prior to the seasons end. Ole Joe sees
this year the Vikings will have no Favre, no QB Tarvaris Jackson, no
WR Sidney Rice, and no DT Pat Williams. Ole Joe is drinking the
media koolaid and hearing all the hoopla of how the Vikings
divisional rivals will be sooooooo good this year with regard to
Green Bay probably going to win back to back Super Bowls, of how
both the Bears and Lions are teams to look out for.
Yada yada yada...I also see
a Viking team that was in turmoil last year, however, I also see a
Viking team that won 13 games the season prior and was a Favre
interception away in OT from going to the Super Bowl. I see a pretty
good veteran QB in Donovan McNabb donning purple who has something
in Minny that he did not have in either Philly or Washington and
that is a bonafide upper tier running back to hand the ball off to
which will make the opposing team respect the play action passing
game even more.
Last season the Vikings
faced the leagues eighth toughest schedule and this year are tied
with Miami and Houston for having the NFLs tenth toughest schedule
based on opponents wins/losses from last year. With all the turmoil
going on last year Minny still managed to post a record of 6-10 with
three of their losses by five or less points and what I like most is
the fact that Minny managed to overcome everything, with regard to
the Favre issue and the ouster of HC Childress, to go 3-3 straight
up coming down the stretch which is something to build on.
The Vikings three seasonal
win tallies prior to last season were 13, 10, and 8 games which is
an average of 10.3 wins per year, if we include last years result in
a four year average we see that Minny still averaged over 9 wins a
year in a four year span and was a playoff team in 2008 and 2009.
There is way too much talent and pride on this Viking team to not
want to rebound from last year, look for new QB McNabb to protect
the ball better and improve on Minnys -11 turnover ratio from last
year.....OVER 7 regular season wins.
NEW ENGLAND:
The Patriots had a darn good season last year in finishing with an
overall mark of 14-3 straight up and 10-6-1 ATS, however, if the
truth be told a lot of New Englands success last season was built on
simply having the right bounces at the right time going their way
with regard to finishing the season with an almost unheard of mega
+28 turnover margin.
I wanted to see how teams
historically have performed the next season following a season like
New England had with regard to finishing with +18 or more in
turnover margin and found some startling results. For example, since
1990 there have been a total of 19 NFL teams to finish with a
turnover margin of +18 or more, 14 of those 19 teams went on to win
less games the following season, meanwhile, three teams had a better
record and two teams had the same record as the previous year.
Wanting to refine the
results a little further I went back and checked on how teams fared
the following season after finishing with +20 or more turnovers in a
season, I found that over the same span since 1990 there have only
been 8 NFL teams to finish with a +20 or more turnover ratio. All
eight teams that finished with a +20 ratio lost more games the next
season and 4 of the 8 teams finished with a record of 8-8 the next
season and here's the kicker...no team since 1990 that had a +20
turnover ratio or more has gone on to win more than 10 games the
next season.
New England won a total of
14 games last season, however, four of their fourteen wins were by
four or less points. The Patriots will find the going a little
tougher this season with out of division road games at improved
Oakland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Denver as well as home dates
against San Diego, Dallas, Giants, and Colts. New England usually
fields one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and this year will
be no different, however, that doesn't change the fact that this is
a unit that is getting a little long in the tooth.
To add some depth along the
offensive line as well as to start transitioning to new members, the
Patriots drafted OT Nate Solder out of Colorado in the first round
with the 17th overall pick and then snagged former TCU Horned Frog
OG Marcus Cannon with the 138th overall pick. If for some reason
Patriot QB Tom Brady goes down and misses any game time the Patriots
will be forced to go with third year undrafted free agent back up
Brian Hoyer which would not be a good combination with a New England
defense that finished last season ranked a shoddy 25th overall and
30th against the pass..translation is that New England needs to
score to protect their defense and if Brady goes down I don't think
Hoyer has Tom Bradys skill set.....UNDER 11.5
regular season wins.
ATLANTA:
The Falcons won the NFC South last season after finishing 13-3
during the regular season, Atlanta also earned a first round bye and
homefield advantage for last years playoff round, however, that
didn't help them one iota as Green Bay came to Atlanta and exposed
the Falcons in a 48-21 drubbing that wasn't even as close as the
score might indicate as Green Bay had more first downs 28 to 15,
more total yards 442 to 194, and won the TOP (time of possession)
battle by a whopping 38:19 to 21:41 difference.
Atlanta was an enigma last
year as they somehow managed to finish 13-3 with the NFLs 14th
ranked toughest slate of games, however, a closer look-see reveals
that these Falcons must have had lady luck shining on them all
season long with regard to winning six games by 6 or less points and
doing so with a middle of the pack offense and a middle of the pack
defense that both finished with a middle of the pack 16th overall
ranking. Final regular season statistics show that the Falcon
offense averaged 341.19 total yards per game while the Falcon
defense allowed on average 332.44 total yards per outing.
How does a team win 13
games during the regular season when their offense only gains 8.75
more yards per game on average than their defense allows? By getting
the bounces, thats how. Atlanta finished the regular season with a
+14 turnover ratio which allowed them to win games they probably
should have lost. During their opening playoff game last year
against Green Bay these Falcons didn't get the bounces as they lost
the T/O battle 4 to 1 and got smoked 48-21.
Divisional rival New
Orleans should re-take this division this season, the Tampa Bay Bucs
are on the rise after posting a 10-6 record last year, however,
Tampa Bay was another team that had lady luck shining on them with
regard to having exactly half their wins (five wins) coming by 3 or
less points and finishing with a +9 in T/O ratio. Carolina has to
improve on a 2-14 season as they have nowhere to go but up. The
Falcons have tough out of division road games at Chicago, at
Detroit, at Indy, and at Houston along with tough out of division
games when they host Philly, Green Bay, and Minnesota. I really
can't see these Falcons winning any more than nine games this
season.....UNDER 10.5 regular season wins.
Take care and be well my
friend
Jim
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