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Welcome to the Football Forecastor, home to Jim "Dirtydog"
Campbell, who is considered one of the nations most prolific sports
handicappers, we specialize in NFL and College Football handicapping
and take sports betting to a whole new level by treating sports
wagering as an investment...take a ride with us on the "Money
Train" today!!
NATIONAL
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AUBURN
-1 Oregon.....................WINNER!!
Monday 1/10/11 8:30 pm
est.
4****BEST
BET
Auburn/Oregon......UNDER
73.....WINNER!!
3***Play
Selection
The odds maker made
Oregon a +3 point doggie when the opening number was posted,
however, since that point in time the betting masses have thrown
money and then more money on the Oregon side of the slate to the
point that Oregon is now only a +1 point doggie against their SEC
opponent, the Auburn Tigers, current betting trends show that 72%
of all money wagered has been on the money-line with Oregon. The
money coming in on Oregon has for the most part been all Joe
Public as evidenced by the fact that the number itself of 3 did
not move until December 21st when it started its downward slide.
Translation: Sharp money
would have hit the opening number from the outset and not waited
for over two weeks when the bowl games were starting to heat up.
Its my contention that the sharp money was willing to wait and see
which way the proverbial wind would blow while ole Joe Public
bought into the hype and used Oregon in a vast majority of teaser
and parlay action plays which in itself caused the initial slide
downward to 2.5 from the opening number of 3.
Obviously ole Joe is now
pounding the Ducks in straight up fashion as this is only college
game left on the docket, thus the question, will ole Joe continue
to pound Oregon to the point that the Ducks will become the
favorite in this contest? The public will continue to pound away
on Oregon but look for the sharp money to come in over the top on
Auburn now that the number is down to only -1 or -1.5 at most
shops.
So why is ole Joe
pounding Oregon like there's no tomorrow? Maybe past history has
something to do with it as Heisman Trophy winning QB Cam Newton
will be under center against the Ducks of Oregon and in historical
terms winning the Heisman, with all the hub-bub surrounding that
honor, has proved to be vexing in nature with regard to six of the
last eight Heisman Trophy winners going down in defeat in National
Championship Games. As a side note, dating back to 1971 there have
been a total of 15 Heisman winning QB's to play in bowl games (any
bowl game) and 10 of those 15 QB's went down in defeat.
When this contest kicks
off it will have been 37 days since both of these teams last
played which was back on December 4th, since that point in time
all we've heard from the talking heads in the media is...shootout,
shootout, shootout...If that・fs
what you・fre
expecting, then in my humble opinion you will be sorely
disappointed. Each team has a pretty good coordinator on each side
of the ball, with that being said it would not surprise me in the
least to see both opposing coordinator's employing the same game
plan with regard to controlling the clock and keeping the opposing
offense on the sideline watching, how will they accomplish this?
By running the rock.
Both offenses like to
play fast and loose, however, of these two teams Oregon is the
smaller, speedier team and loves to get to the edge, meanwhile,
the Tigers of Auburn live to pound away then hit teams over the
top for the home run shot. In opposing offense versus opposing
defense matchups, I am of the opinion that the Auburn Tiger
offense has the better personnel to play a ball control type of
game against the Oregon defense than visa-versa.
Auburn・fs
offensive line outweighs Oregon・fs
defensive front by an average of 60 pounds per player, needless to
say, the Tigers best strategy would be to then pound the rock
right at the Duck defense and wear them down. By controlling the
line of scrimmage and the clock while on offense, Auburn would be
essentially taking away the Ducks biggest weapon which is Oregon's
up tempo offensive style of play which has shown time and time
again to have the ability to wear opposing defenses out, in other
words, Auburn needs to out-Oregon Oregon.
The long layoff will
definitely have an impact on this game and especially in the early
going. It will be interesting to see how both offenses work back
into game speed. The team that manages to adjust the quickest
might very well be the team that leaves with that shiny crystal
football in hand. Look for both teams to rely on the running game
to set up the pass as Auburn owns a 70 to 30 run/pass mix ratio
while Oregon runs the rock about 62% of the time. As a side note,
Auburn and Oregon are two of only four teams in the nation to
average over 6.0 yards per pop toting the pill this season.
Nevada and Northern
Illinois are the other two teams to average over 6.0 yards per pop
this season and a glance at how they fared in their respective
bowl games reveals that both won and both finals came in UNDER the
posted total. Which team will have more success stopping the
opposing running attack? Auburn is currently tied at the 10th spot
in the nation allowing only 111.69 yards per game with a per pop
average of 3.49, on the flip side of things the Oregon defense is
ranked 16th in rush defense allowing 117.58 yards per game with a
per pop average of 3.33.
Oregon has a bad habit of
starting slow as evidenced by having the lead on the scoreboard in
only three of ten games this season against fellow Division one
(sorry, I don't like the new name) competition after the first
quarter. If we were to compare who has played who this season, we
would see that if the Ducks fall behind Auburn there is probably
no coming back. Oregon hails from the PAC-10 which had only three
of their other nine members finish the regular season with a
winning record, meanwhile, Auburn hails from the rough and tumble
SEC that had seven of twelve teams finish with winning records and
has six teams currently ranked in the nations Top 25 not to
mention the fact that three SEC teams are ranked in the Top 11.
Auburn is the much better
team in this contest, they have the better athletes and they are
more battle tested having faced a much tougher schedule to get to
this National Championship Game. All these Tigers keep hearing
about is how good these Ducks are and yada yada yada. All that
talk has managed to do is too keep Auburn focused on that task at
hand. In the end analysis the SEC is the much stronger conference
and has now won the past four straight National Championship games
with four different teams.
When it comes to the
posted O/U on this contest, keep in mind that the long layoff will
make both offenses stagnant until they get their timing down, a
glance at each teams result sheet reveals that Auburn has only
allowed more than 31 points to be scored against them twice all
season. On the flip side of things, the Oregon Ducks only allowed
more than 31 points to be scored against them once all season, a
check backwards in time reveals that Auburn games only managed to
exceed a combined total of 73 points in four of the Tigers twelve
games against division one opponents, meanwhile, Oregon games have
only topped 73 combined points in three of eleven tilts against
division one opponents.
By releasing these key selections later in the week and
closer to game time we are able to take advantage of the latest
information available which includes the latest weather and injury
reports as well as any "Line Movements"
that have taken place.
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