It never ceases to amaze me just how many sports bettors pass
when it comes to wagering on NFL preseason games, the reason
probably has more to do with past preseason wagering losses than
anything else, in the big picture most simply do not understand
that you can not handicap the NFL preseason using the same methods
that you use when handicapping NFL regular season games.
You must approach NFL preseason handicapping from a totally
different perspective and actually pretend that you are the head
coach of the team that you are handicapping, as a head coach in
preseason action you must have pre-defined goals of what you want
to accomplish during the preseason.
Above all you must never forget that the NFL preseason is
actually practice and “Tune up” time for each team to work on
their weaknesses from the previous season and of course to take a
look at each player on their roster and especially the players
that are fighting for starting and backup positions, remember that
as a HC you must also whittle down the roster as you go.
I mentioned above that as a HC you really want to use the
preseason to practice and perfect any and all changes you made
during the offseason in order to fix whatever weaknesses your team
had, a simple way to do this is by taking a look at how your team
ranked offensively and defensively from the previous regular
season.
For example, at the conclusion of the 2004 regular season the
final statistics showed Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Miami, and
Oakland ranked 29th, 30th, 31st, and 32nd respectively in
offensive rushing yards, to correct this the Bucs drafted RB
Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, the Niners drafted RB Frank Gore,
the Dolphins drafted RB Ronnie Brown and the Raiders made a key
free agent pickup of former Jet RB Lamont Jordan.
So, now that we know that these four teams finished in the
bottom four slots with regard to total rushing yardage in 2004,
and we also know that each team has taken steps to correct this
weakness for the upcoming 2005 season, doesn’t it make sense
that these four teams will in all likelihood want to practice
their running game during the preseason?
The Bears allowed a whopping 66 sacks last year while the Rams
allowed the next highest amount of sacks with a total of 59, this
of course means that we can probably expect to see a lot of
personnel shifting and experimentation along the offensive line
for these two teams during the preseason.
Kansas City, Oakland, Tennessee, and Green Bay statistically
ranked 32nd, 31st, 30th, and 29th in defensive yardage per pass
allowed in 2004, meaning that their deep pass defense was terrible
last year, thus I would look for a lot of new schemes and new
players to be utilized in the defensive secondary of these four
teams during the 2005 NFL preseason.
New Orleans, Miami, St Louis, and Cleveland finished 2004
ranked 29th, 30th, 31st, and 32nd respectively in defensive
rushing yards allowed, each of these four teams allowed a whopping
140 yards or more on average to their opponents per game last
year, thus you would expect to see these four teams use different
people or different combinations of people along their defensive
line during the preseason and/or use different blocking schemes or
a different style of defense.
On the flip side however, keep in mind that the opposite is
just as true with regard to the teams that finished at the top of
each offensive and defensive category, these teams will probably
be using the same starters from last season and thus will give the
backups more playing and practice time during the preseason.
Another key strategy I like to use in preseason action is to
know what the QB rotation will be for each team in any given
contest, usually this information can be found in the local
newspaper of whatever city that team plays in at least a couple of
days prior to the preseason game taking place.
If a team has a strong starting QB but a so-so backup QB and
rookie third and fourth stringers and they are playing a team that
also has a strong QB along with a pretty good backup, a decent
third string journeyman and possibly a rookie fourth stringer you
can bet that I am going to back the team with the better QB
rotation and especially if there are a few other reasons to back
this team as well.
If you can pin point a team that has a QB “controversy”
going on, meaning a team that has two QB’s vying for the
starting job, this can lead to many winning opportunities because
of the fact that the HC will want to be viewed as being fair by
giving each QB equal playing time with the starting offensive line
and starting RB’s and WR’s which of course means that this
teams offensive starters will be on the field longer than the
other teams defensive starters.
Once you have grown accustomed to analyzing each team in any
given preseason match up from the stand point of what each HC
wants to accomplish as I have outlined above you will invariably
start to notice many winning situations either by wagering on the
side or the total in that affair.
In closing, always remember that betting the NFL preseason
requires you to recognize a team's needs and also requires an
understanding of what a particular HC wants to accomplish before
Week One of the regular season rolls around.
Keep in mind that HC’s want to look at the “Fresh Blood”,
meaning that teams ranked high in defensive categories from the
previous regular season can be involved in very high scoring
preseason games, and consequently teams known for high scoring
contests can be involved in defensive showdowns because in each
instance new players are being looked at.
Remember that passing teams can suddenly become running teams
and running teams can suddenly become passing teams, during the
NFL preseason teams tend to take a departure from their normal
game plans in order to experiment which is why so many bettors
lose money trying to handicap the NFL preseason as if it was a
regular season contest and thus are convinced there is simply no
way to handicap the preseason, but we know better don’t we?
