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The
NFL has long since supplanted baseball as “America’s sport”
and for good reason when considering NFL and College football
teams play once weekly which in the end lends credence to the
saying of “absence makes the heart grow fonder”, however, in
the big picture one of the predominate reasons for the popularity
of football centers around how easy it is to understand the
mechanics of wagering on football.
Following
are three considerations to ponder when wagering on the NFL that
can help you consistently beat the books:
1)
Do not over analyze last week's performance in terms of a
good outing or a bad outing by any individual team, instead look
at how that team has performed over the previous four or five
weeks. Keep in mind that college football differs from
professional football in the maturity level of the players
involved, meaning that much more value must be assigned to the
home team in a college football game than to a professional team
playing at home.
2)
Shop around for the best betting line available to you,
this is especially important in games in which “key numbers”
come into play. Key numbers are called as such because the final
margin of victory often lands on these numbers, for example 3, 7,
10, 13, and 14 are the most common margin of victory numbers in
both college and professional football. The reason why has to do
with the way a team scores, 3 is a field goal, 7 is a touchdown
with a kicked point after and so forth. Keep in mind that there is
big difference in betting on or against a team taking or laying 2
½ points versus taking or laying 3 or 3 ½ points and so on.
3)
Injuries are one of the most over-rated statistics in both
the NFL and college football game, the exception to this is if the
injury is to the starting quarterback or if the current injury is
part of a “cluster injury”, a cluster injury means that a team
is now short two or more starting offensive or defensive linemen
or is now short two or more offensive or defensive backs.
Generally speaking, the betting public over reacts to news of an
injury and quite often this over reaction causes a line move that
is totally unjustified in terms of the importance of the injury
versus the adjustment to the posted point spread, this creates at
times a lot of “value”, look to exploit the line by taking the
side with the injury.
Our goal here at www.footballforecastor.com
is to hit the 60% win mark year in and year out with our NFL and
college football selections, in the big picture few handicappers
are able to achieve this lofty goal on a consistent basis. I shake
my head in wonderment on how they get away with such outrageous
claims when I see the Saturday morning scam-you-cappers on TV or
in the advertisements listed in the USA Today newspaper touting
win percentages of 75% or 80% over the course of a season.
The simple truth is that only the
very best handicappers consistently produce seasonal results that
fall within the 55% to 60% range much like we do here at
footballforecastor.com year in and year out, my advise to all clients is to use extreme discipline in the amount of games you
wager on each week, you must also adhere to good money management
techniques in order to get through the peaks and valleys of a long
season.
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