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Welcome to the Football Forecastor, home to Jim "Dirtydog"
Campbell, who is considered one of the nations most prolific sports
handicappers, we specialize in NFL and College Football handicapping
and take sports betting to a whole new level by treating sports
wagering as an investment...take a ride with us on the "Money
Train" today!!
Why gamble on sports?
Why
Gamble on Sports?
by
Jim Campbell of Footballforecastor.com
Men and woman have in all likelihood been gambling on this or
that since the beginning of time, mostly for the sheer pleasure and
excitement of it all, thus the reason that bookmakers have been
around just as long as gamblers themselves.
Its really not that big of a stretch of the ole imagination to think
that today’s gamblers are no different than gamblers of old, the
only real difference is what gamblers of old wagered on and what
gamblers of today wager on.
Today we gamble on a lot of the very same things that gamblers of
yesterday wagered on, with regard to wagering on horse races, cards,
dice, and even political elections to name a few, but gamblers today
have the ability to wager on a much wider assortment of things
including but not limited to church and fire hall bingo, slot
machines, poker machines and even state sponsored lotteries, heck,
today we even have a state who has an economy built around gambling
halls or what we now refer to as casinos.
It’s kind of hard to believe that it was not all that long ago
when a gambler interested in wagering on a sporting event was more
or less forced to run his/her wager thru a local bookmaker and thus
had to take the line given if he or she wanted to place a wager,
unless of course the same gambler had access to other “outs”,
meaning that this same gambler had an out of town connection that he
used in order to allow himself or herself to gain an edge with
respect to the posted spread or money line placed on an event.
In days gone by before the invention of the personal computer, a
smart gambler with the right connections could find more than his
fair share of “Middle's”,
meaning that if for example NFL team Blue were at home against NFL
team Red, it was not that unusual to find the hometown Blue team bet
up with the local books because of hometown sentiment while the line
placed on the visiting Red team in their hometown would hold steady
or be bet down.
Thus, a savvy guy or gal with the right connections in both the Blue
city as well as in the Red city might just find a 2 or a 2 1/2 point
and sometimes even a 3 point difference in the local line from town
to town if he or she looked hard enough and did not hesitate on
making a wager upon finding the difference in posted lines city to
city.
As an example, lets say that the home Blue team was favored to win
by 5.5 points on the opening line but by game time the home town
Blue backers had bet the line up to –7 points, meanwhile, the
visiting Red team’s fans back home bet the line down to +4.5 by
game time.
Thus the line at game time in Blue town is +/- 7 while the line in
Red town is +/- 4.5, this creates what is known as a “Middle”
meaning that a 2.5 point difference now exists between these teams,
the worst that can happen is that one wager will lose and one wager
will win which means that all that one would lose is the “juice”
associated with the wager, meanwhile, the best that can happen is
that the actual score falls somewhere in the middle which allows the
gambler to collect on both ends.
Today however, sports wagering is getting bigger and bigger thanks
to the availability of the home computer, cable TV, sports talk
radio, and of course the influx of so many off shore sports books,
thus the days of finding a good many “middles” are gone although
an astute gambler can still catch a middle opportunity now and then
if he or she keeps their eyes open.
The lines placed on sporting events today are a lot sharper then in
days gone by, but it all evens out in the end because the odds maker
is now not the only one privy to the multitude of information
available surrounding any given sporting event, this is of course
due to the large number of gamblers today owning a home P.C. which
allows the savvy gambler to not only gain valuable handicapping
information via the internet, but to also “line
shop”.
So, the real question my friend is “Why
should today’s savvy gambler wager on sports instead of wagering
on other games of chance”?
Quite simply because a gambler has a much better chance of winning
on a consistent basis when gambling on sporting events than he or
she has when playing any casino game, slot or poker machine, the
state lottery or for that matter any other game of chance, except
for maybe poker or blackjack, but regardless of whether you gamble
on poker, blackjack or sports, the savvy gambler must have a firm
understanding of the game itself and must do his or her homework.
When it comes to wagering on major sports such as football,
baseball, basketball and hockey, usually a spread or money line is
placed on the game by the lines maker and then this established
spread or money line is wagered on by the gambler, however, most
novices as well as a lot of supposed experienced gamblers make the
mistake of believing that the spread or money line placed on a
sporting event is a true indicator of one teams strength and ability
versus the opposing teams strength and ability.
The truth of the matter is that the spread or money line placed on a
game is meant to garner equal action by the gambler on both teams
involved, the winner wins his wager while the loser pays the
“juice” associated with the particular wager that he or she
placed, thus creating the commission that the middleman or
bookmaker/sports book makes for handling the transaction between
winning and losing gamblers.
The serious gambler understands that it is not the bookmaker or
sports book who is his or her enemy, the true enemy is actually the
“Joe public” bettor that places
uninformed, opinionated wagers which of course causes what is
referred to as line movement.
Line movement is simply the difference +/- in what the opening
spread or money line was on a particular event versus what the
closing numbers were on the same event, it must of course be
understood that many factors can and will influence the opening and
closing numbers on an event, including but not limited to weather
and injury concerns, but always remember that it is the very same
“Joe public” bettor that still
influences the established line when they hear of possible weather
or injury concerns amongst other things and thus often creates an
over reaction with regard to line movement.
Its all about odds and percentages when it comes to gambling my
friend, and that is what truly sets apart sports wagering versus
other forms of gambling, take a moment and think about it, if you
wager on a football game for example and the posted line is –3 or
–5 or minus whatever, it is still a 50% proposition on a straight
wager that you are either right or you are wrong which makes the
odds essentially the same as a coin toss.
Of course you must take into consideration that you pay more when
you lose, thus on a straight wager you pay 11 to 10 odds or 110 to
100 dollars wagered, thus the real “Break even” point or winning
percentage that you must achieve on straight wagers is actually
52.38% in order to avoid a monetary loss.
Keeping in mind that 52.38% is the break even point with regard to
straight wagers, a gambler needs to realize that anything above this
percentage is money made, most honest, professional handicappers
achieve winning percentages of 57% to 60% over the course of an
entire season, often the more experienced handicapper can achieve
winning rates of 60% to 65% if the ball bounces right for him or her
here and there over the course of the season.
I pointed out the above with regard to what the “Break even”
percentage is versus how honest professionals fare over the course
of an entire season for a reason, did you ever notice those ads
placed in Fridays edition of the USA Today newspaper by
scamdicappers claiming winning percentages of 80% or 85% or 90%?
Ever see those claims of “Can’t lose”,
or “Sure lock winner”, or “Game
of the year”? Heck, if you get up early enough on Saturday
or Sunday morning you can even catch a scamdicapper show or two on
TV with some of the very same individuals whose ads were in the
previous Fridays USA Today newspaper.
Ads such as the ones described above are designed to sucker in the
poor souls who in all likelihood have dug holes for themselves and
are panicking, in a lot of cases these panicked losers will do or
pay anything for a “Can’t lose”,
or “Sure lock winner”, or “Game
of the year”, I would even venture a guess that this sort
of desperate gambler knows in their heart that those claims of 80%
or 85% or 90% winners are bogus.
So how did this desperate gambler get into
his or her situation to begin with? It happens season in
and season out because of a failure to start with a dedicated
starting bankroll that is used solely for sports wagering which
negates the need to use monies ear marked for the mortgage or car
payment.
A dedicated starting bankroll and a firm understanding of money
management is a must if anyone wants to survive the peaks and
valleys and ups and downs of the season long marathon that is
involved with sports wagering.
I will get into the different aspects surrounding money management
and other topics in another article, but for now remember the key
points brought out in this article, the importance of doing your
homework, understanding that the line or odds placed on a contest is
meant to garner “equal action”
which means that Joe Public is the reason for line movement which of
course amplifies the importance of shopping for the best available
line thru multiple “outs” while keeping an eye open for middling
possibilities.
We
are now an amazing and eye opening 9-3
ATS over the past TWELVE
years
with our Super Bowl selection!! Now that's consistency
my friend...hop aboard the Money Train
Today!!
We have now correctly picked the point spread winner in the
past ELEVEN straight College
National Championship games and over the past TWELVE
years we have a total combined average winning rate of 57.88%
in all sports!!
Now that's consistency my friend...hop aboard
the Money Train Today!!
Our
extraordinary record is based on our outstanding "Late
Week" selections which have averaged a 57.88%
winning rate over the past 12 years and that also includes our NFL
"Best Bets"
which have achieved a winning rate of 63.05%
over the past 10 years!!
By releasing these key selections later in the week and
closer to game time we are able to take advantage of the latest
information available which includes the latest weather and injury
reports as well as any "Line Movements"
that have taken place.
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