NFL
WILDCARD PLAYOFF ROUND
Jets/Indianapolis..............UNDER
45....final
total score 33.......WINNER
Saturday
1/8/11 8:05 pm est.
10**********BEST
BET
After
losing three straight games and losing four of their previous five
outings, the Peyton Manning led Colts rallied to win their final
four games of the regular season and garner yet another AFC South
divisional title, however, like the Saints these Colts are a far
cry from their Super Bowl form of last year. Also like the Saints,
these Colts suffered a myriad of injuries through out the regular
season which has been the major contributor to the problems that
have plagued them.
The
Colts are 6-2 straight up and ATS in home playoff games dating
back to the 2003 season, meanwhile, the Jets who are being led
into battle by QB Mark Sanchez and posted a mark of 6-2 straight
up and 5-3 ATS in road games this season. This contest is a
rematch of the AFC Championship game played last year at this same
locale where the Jets lost by the final score of 17-30 after
holding a 17-6 lead in the contest.
I
don't trust the hometown Colts because they are still a banged up
team and are missing key components of last years team and I
certainly don't trust Jet QB Mark Sanchez either with his career
TD to INT ratio of 29 to 33, his shoddy career completion rate of
54.4% and his career QB rating of 70.2 over the infamous Peyton
Manning.
Colt
QB Peyton Manning has not looked good in certain games this
season, however, he still had a stellar year in comparison to most
other QB's in the league with regard to his having a TD to INT
ratio of 33 to 17, a pass completion rate of 66.3% and QB rating
of 91.9 this season. As already mentioned these Colts won their
final four games of the regular season, however, a check of who
has played who reveals that over the final six weeks of the
regular season Indianapolis played the NFL's 28th
easiest schedule as their opponents over that span had a sorry win
percentage of .409.
On
the flip side of things, the Jets posted a mark of 3-3 straight up
and ATS over their final six games of the regular season, however,
they played a much tougher slate of games than did the Colts as
evidenced by the fact that the Jets opponents over that span had a
win percentage of .587 which was the NFL's 7th toughest
schedule over that period of time.
A
good reason not to like the Jets in this contest centers around
the fact that over the last six weeks of the regular season Gang
Green was +4 in turnover ratio yet only produced a mark of 3-3
straight up and ATS, yes they played a tough slate of games that
included New England, Pittsburgh, and Chicago which are three
playoff teams, but that's the point...they lost two of those three
games against playoff bound teams and for the season these Jets
are a sorry 2-4 straight up and ATS versus playoff bound teams.
The
Colts are no better as they won ten games this season but only
beat one playoff team (Kansas City) and along the way only faced
three playoff bound teams and posted a mark of 1-2 straight up and
3-0 ATS in those games. A glance at how the Colts have fared in
the turnover department reveals that over the final six weeks of
the regular season the Blue Horseshoe was -7 and for the season
are now -4...yet they only won ten games against a slate of
opponents that for the season had a winning percentage of .482.
Dating
back to the 2003 season these two teams have met a total of four
times with each meeting exceeding the posted total including last
years meeting in the AFC Championship game which tallied 47 points
and last years meeting during the regular season which totaled 44
points scored, thus the question..why like the UNDER 45
in this contest?
Mainly
because of how each team will game plan is the reason, Jet HC Rex
Ryan will in all likelihood keep QB Mark Sanchez's passing to a
minimum as Marky Mark has tossed 7 picks over the past six weeks
and has tossed 3 picks in his last four outings, with that being
said I would expect to see the Jets try to control the tempo with
their bread and butter style of running the ball and play a field
position type of game, if successful Gang Green will keep Manning
and his boys on the sideline watching.
The
problem for the Jets is the fact that the Colt defense has
actually been playing very very well against the run lately as
evidenced by the fact that the Blue Horseshoe faced four strong
running teams during the final four weeks of the regular season (Tenn
X2, Jacksonville, and Oakland) and only allowed an average of 79.8
yards per contest which ranked the Colt defense the 2nd best in
the league over that time frame behind the Pittsburgh Steelers.
To
put things into proper prespective you have to understand that
over the final six weeks of the regular season the Jags were the
NFL's best rushing team averaging a mega 173.67 yards per game
while Oakland over the same period ranked 3rd in the
league and averaged 162.17 yards per game....the Colt defense held
the Jags to a measly 67 rushing yards on 22 attempts for a per pop
average of 3.04 and held the Oakland running attack to a mere 80
yards.
We've
all seen Peyton Manning play enough games to know his style which
is to say that he likes to dink and dunk teams to death then hit
them with the long ball, the problem for Manning is that these
Jets are well versed in what Manning likes to do and has
experience at playing upper echelon QB's having already faced
Patriot QB Tom Brady twice this season, along with games against
Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger.
Yet
for the season this Jet pass defense ranked 6th in
passing yards allowed and ranked 5th in yards allowed
per pass, over the final six weeks of the regular season the Jet
pass defense allowed only 168.17 passing yards per outing and only
allowed a meager 5.54 yards per pass attempt which ranked them # 4
in the NFL over this span in both categories. This games shapes up
as a low scoring defensive battle with each defense forcing a
turnover or two from the opposing offense, most of the game action
will likely take place between the 25 yard lines which will
produce more FG's than TD's. Give me the total to go UNDER
45 in what will be my single largest wager of
this season.
Green
Bay/Philadelphia.......OVER
46.5....final
total score 37.....LOSER
Sunday
1/9/11 4:30 pm est.
3***Play
Selection
Last
week these Packers managed a narrow 10-3 straight up win as a huge
-11 point favorite over what was supposed to be a disinterested
Bear team, those measly 10 points scored by Green Bay in the win
was the 7th time this season that the Packers scored 20
or less points. As a side note, in those seven games in which the
Packers scored 20 or less points, they posted a less than shoddy
mark of 2-5 straight up and 1-6 ATS. Oddly enough, Green Bay was a
stellar 8-1 straight up and ATS in games in which they scored 21
or more points this season....translation? Start fast and score
points!
On
the flip side of things, the hometown Eagles in this contest
posted a close 13-14 win over Dallas as a +2 point home doggie
which was the second week in a row that a game involving
Philadelphia came in under the posted total. As a side note the
O/U is 4-4 in Philadelphia home games this season, however, the
last two finals played at Lincoln Financial field must be taken
with the proverbial grain of salt due to the Eagles hosting the
Vikings without the services of Brett Farve on a Tuesday night and
then five short days later playing host to the Boyzzzz in a game
that was virtually meaningless to the Eagles.
This
contest is actually a rematch from the NFL's opening season slate
of games played at this same locale and won by Green Bay 27-20 as
-3 point road favorites with a posted O/U of 48. Speaking of the
O/U, since 1990 these two teams have met a total of sixteen times
and twelve of those sixteen meetings have produced scores that
have fell short of the posted total including the past four
straight get-togethers which have all came in under the posted
number.
Why
then should we look to the OVER 46.5 in this
contest then? As already mentioned, this is a rematch of a game
played earlier this season, in that contest Kevin Kolb was the
starting QB and not Michael Vick who will be under center this
time around. Kolb is the better passer without a doubt, however,
Vick is very elusive and has the ability to extend plays and
drives with his legs should protection break down against this
very good Packer defense which over the final six weeks of the
regular season was the NFL's 2nd best against the pass
but a middling 16th against the rush.
Meanwhile,
the Eagle defense has been allowing opposing teams to score all
season long as evidenced by their overall seasonal ranking of 25th
in points allowed per 100 yards and nothing has changed as Philly
has allowed 7.18 point per 100 yards in their last six outings
which ranks them 23rd over this span in that category
and an even worse ranking of 25th over the final six
weeks of the season in terms of total yards allowed (350.33).
Philadelphia
has allowed opponents to score 24 or more points in 11 of 16 games
this season and will face a now healthy Aaron Rodgers who I am
sure will carve up the Eagle secondary, meanwhile, the Packers
will probably assign a spy to keep an eye on Michael Vick which
will leave Green Bay a little short handed in their defensive
secondary and open them up for slants and shots down the middle.
The weatherman is calling for clear skies with cold temps, look
for the loser in this contest to put up 24 plus points while the
winner surpasses 30 points scored. Give me the OVER
46.5 for a 3***Play Selection.
Take
care and be well my friend
Jim
